Hurricane Tracking

NHC latest advisory:

KIKO SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 68 KT...THE GFDL 88 KT...AND THE HWRF 90 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE WITH A FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT. AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR AS KIKO REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.

Light shear (low high-level winds), warm SST's, low core pressure are factors that build a strong hurricane. Gotta love the warm sea temps.

> > > Here's a good website to track Kiko from:

http://www.tropicalactivity.com/

Along with the nice visual from Wunderground, Sandy has a nice neat table to run stats from too:

Track	Public Advisory	Discussion	Marine Advisory
Visible	Infrared	RGB	Water Vapor
Visible Loop	IR Loop	RGB Loop	WV Loop
More Images	Windshear	Windshear Tendency	Historical
Radar	Computer Models

Tropical Weather Outlook	Tropical Weather Discussion
Experimental Graphical TWO	Tropical Cyclone Danger
EPAC Visible	EPAC Infrared

Nice one, Hurrikan.

(Please see the link for the whole table, one column isn't being shown by the blog.)

Cat 2 for Kiko?

Cat 2 or Dog 2?

Look out Cabo San Lucas...

Storm2k.org

Forecasters saying that Kiko could become a Category 2 hurricane by next Tuesday.

TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
500 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

...KIKO NEARLY STATIONARY...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

* * * *
Check out this in the daytime, might be a good sat link.

And here's one of those "I can't see your face in cyberspace" moments...

This was me in Hurricane Jose in St. Martin about 8 years ago.

Yes, it's been that long. We had to get off the beach early that day before being barracaded into the beach club under martial law. And before a coup de foudre (being struck by lightning).

Suzzzz might know this beach,
< style="text-align: right;">Next time I'm taking
the puppy-wuppies.

BooBoo and

Mishka RosieBear